Seasonal Tendencies: Market Cycle Edge in ICT Concepts

Cartoon-style image of a candlestick chart combined with seasonal symbols like sun, leaves, snowflakes, and flowers, illustrating seasonal tendencies in trading.

Table of Contents

  1. What Are Seasonal Tendencies in ICT Concepts?
  2. Why Seasonal Tendencies Matter in Trading
  3. Key Seasonal Tendencies in Financial Markets
  4. How to Use Seasonal Tendencies in Your Trading Strategy
  5. Conclusion: Harnessing Seasonal Tendencies for Smarter Trading

What Are Seasonal Tendencies in ICT Concepts?

Seasonal Tendencies refer to recurring patterns in market behavior based on specific time cycles, such as quarters, months, weeks, or days. These tendencies are not random; they result from the activities of large institutional players who often operate based on annual financial calendars, macroeconomic cycles, and liquidity requirements.

In ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Concepts, understanding seasonal tendencies helps traders anticipate market movements during certain periods, providing an edge by aligning with smart money flows.

Why Seasonal Tendencies Matter in Trading

Seasonal tendencies are crucial because they:

  1. Reveal Predictable Patterns: Historical price movements often repeat due to recurring institutional behaviors.
  2. Improve Timing: Knowing when certain tendencies occur can help traders time entries and exits better.
  3. Highlight Liquidity Shifts: They often align with significant liquidity events, such as earnings reports, economic announcements, and fiscal year-end adjustments.
  4. Align with Institutional Behavior: Institutions often follow fixed cycles, creating predictable price action that traders can capitalize on.

Key Seasonal Tendencies in Financial Markets

1. Quarterly Cycles

Financial markets often follow quarterly cycles driven by:

  • Earnings Reports: Companies report earnings quarterly, creating volatility in stocks and indices.
  • Institutional Portfolio Rebalancing: Fund managers adjust portfolios at the end of each quarter, leading to shifts in liquidity and price movements.

ICT Insights:

Quarterly opens (January, April, July, October) are significant levels for measuring market sentiment. Price often reacts strongly around these levels, creating opportunities for entries and exits.

2. Monthly Cycles

Monthly tendencies stem from the financial and operational schedules of market participants.

  • First and Last Weeks of the Month:
    • The first week often sees fresh institutional positions, aligning with monthly opens.
    • The last week typically involves profit-taking and portfolio adjustments.
  • Mid-Month Reversals:
    • ICT highlights how the mid-month point often serves as a pivot, leading to trend continuations or reversals.

ICT Insights:

Mark the monthly open price on your chart. Price action around this level can act as a reference point for identifying the dominant trend.

3. Weekly and Daily Cycles

Shorter cycles, such as weekly and daily patterns, provide granular insights into market behavior.

  • Weekly Tendencies:
    • Mondays often involve consolidations or false moves.
    • Midweek (Tuesday to Thursday) typically offers the most significant price action.
    • Fridays often see profit-taking or position adjustments ahead of the weekend.
  • Daily Tendencies:
    • ICT emphasizes trading during killzones (e.g., London Open, New York Open) for optimal liquidity and volatility.
    • Early session moves often provide setups for the day’s trend.

ICT Insights:

Use the weekly and daily opens as key levels for anticipating price reactions. Combine these levels with killzones to refine your timing.

How to Use Seasonal Tendencies in Your Trading Strategy

1. Mark Key Levels

  • Plot the quarterly, monthly, and weekly opens on your chart. These levels often act as magnets for price and provide strong reference points.

2. Focus on High-Impact Times

  • Align your trading with periods of high liquidity, such as midweek, mid-month, and quarterly transitions.
  • Use ICT killzones to identify optimal trading windows during daily sessions.

3. Combine Seasonal Tendencies with ICT Concepts

  • Liquidity Zones: Identify areas where seasonal tendencies align with liquidity pools, such as stop-loss clusters or order blocks.
  • Break of Structure (BOS): Look for breaks of key levels near seasonal tendency periods for confirmation of trend shifts.
  • Fair Value Gaps (FVGs): Watch for price to fill these gaps during significant seasonal cycles.

4. Backtest Historical Data

Analyze historical price behavior during specific seasonal periods to identify recurring patterns in your chosen market. This provides confidence and clarity for future trades.

5. Adapt to Market Conditions

While seasonal tendencies are powerful, they are not absolute. Always confirm setups using real-time price action and ICT concepts to avoid relying solely on historical tendencies.

Conclusion: Harnessing Seasonal Tendencies for Smarter Trading

Seasonal tendencies provide traders with a reliable framework for anticipating market movements based on recurring cycles. By integrating these patterns with ICT concepts like liquidity zones, order blocks, and market structure shifts, traders can enhance their strategies and align with smart money flows.

Mastering this concept requires observation, practice, and discipline. When used correctly, they can significantly improve your timing, accuracy, and overall trading performance.

Private Coaching

If you’re ready to take your trading skills to the next level and learn how to apply ICT concepts in real-time, book your free discovery session with me today! We’ll discuss your goals, create or assess your current trading system, and develop a personalized plan for you to become a consistent and successful trader.


Book FREE Session